Consultancy Service: Continental PPR Vaccination Analysis, Vaccine Demand Forecasting and ARIS Vaccination Data Standardization (INDIVIDUALS ONLY)

Commissioning institution | African Union Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR), through the Pan-African PPR Secretariat (PAPS) Position | One Individual Consultant: Senior PPR Epidemiologist / Senior Data Analyst Modality | Predominantly desk-based and home-based; virtual or written consultation only; no country missions Effort and duration | Up to 40 working days over three calendar months from the agreed commencement date Supervision | Technical: Programme Expert, Disease Management and Control. Overall: Director of AU-IBAR Background and rationale AU-IBAR supports the sustainable development of animal resources in African Union Member States. Through PAPS, it coordinates the Pan-African PPR Eradication Programme. Activity 3.2.1 requires an analysis of PPR vaccination data and its relationship with disease occurrence over the last five years, together with an estimate of possible vaccine demand. Vaccination records are dispersed across national Veterinary Services, the Animal Resources Information System (ARIS), Regional Economic Communities (RECs), AU-PANVAC, partner programmes and project reports. Definitions and population denominators are not harmonised, and post-vaccination evaluation (PVE) evidence is uneven. Without a consolidated evidence base, vaccine need, procurement and PPR2 investment cannot be planned reliably. This assignment will consolidate and assess the evidence, develop transparent vaccine-demand forecasts and define the core vaccination data standards for routine capture through ARIS. It builds on two existing assets, ARIS and the draft Vaccination Strategic Framework, and will inform PPR2 formulation, Activity 3.2.4 and resource mobilisation. It creates neither a new information system nor a new strategy. Objectives and expected results The overall objective is to establish a validated and sustainable evidence base on PPR vaccination and its epidemiological effects, estimate current and future vaccine demand, and standardise routine vaccination reporting through ARIS. Specific objective | Expected result and use Consolidate, clean and classify country vaccination, population, PVE and disease-occurrence data for an agreed five-year core period. | A cleaned, evidence-classified continental vaccination dataset. Assess vaccination performance, geographical and population gaps, and the relationship between vaccination and reported disease occurrence, distinguishing association from causal evidence. | An understanding of what vaccination has achieved and where coverage did not translate into immunity. Develop a core ARIS vaccination data dictionary, reporting templates, validation rules and an annual updating mechanism with assigned responsibilities. | ARIS vaccination data standards and an annual update mechanism, handed over to the ARIS team. Produce a reproducible four-scenario vaccine-demand forecast by country, REC and episystem, with uncertainty analysis. | Demand estimates with implications for vaccine production, AU-PANVAC certification, procurement, cold chain and financing. Produce a reconciled reference table of small-ruminant population denominators and PPR Monitoring and Assessment Tool (PMAT) stages by country (and by priority episystem or targeted sub-national zone where relevant), with an explicit source hierarchy. | A common reference for this assignment, PPR2 costing and ARIS. Translate findings into a prioritised Evidence-to-Strategy Matrix and transfer the data, analytical methods and forecasting tools to AU-IBAR. | Evidence feeding the vaccination framework, PPR2 formulation, Activity 3.2.4 and resource mobilisation, and tools AU-IBAR can maintain. Scope and approach Approach Desk-based delivery: review of programme documents, ARIS extracts, partner datasets and literature, plus data submitted through PAPS-facilitated structured requests. Consultation and validation are virtual or written only. No country missions, primary field surveys or new laboratory testing are envisaged. Proportionate methodology: epidemiological rigour combined with a data-management approach that can be completed within the approved effort. Evidence discipline: reported, validated, partner, estimated and modelled data are kept distinct, and causal claims are made only where the design supports them. Single point of accountability: one consultant combines epidemiology and data analysis, leads the technical work, facilitates remote validation, documents assumptions and limitations, and delivers an integrated evidence and handover package. The Technical Reference Team (section 6.1) supports data access, technical review and specialised questions; it does not replace the consultant’s accountability for complete and reproducible outputs. Consultation: national veterinary authorities and PPR focal points are consulted through established PAPS and REC channels; AU-PANVAC, the ARIS team, M&E personnel, Regional Coordinators, FAO and WOAH through the Technical Reference Team. Points of agreement, unresolved differences and limitations in participation are recorded. Sensitive or unpublished data are accessed and shared only under agreed permissions. Core and extended scope The minimum acceptable scope comprises: A desk inventory of available vaccination data sources for all countries of the programme area, as listed by PAPS at inception. An in-depth analysis of the five-year core period for 12 to 15 priority countries agreed with PAPS in the Inception Report, selected to represent the priority episystems communicated by PAPS, the four RECs and the range of PMAT stages, and including countries with documented PVE. A selective desk review of earlier programmes where documents or ARIS data are already available. The core ARIS vaccination data standard. The vaccine-demand forecast at country level for the priority countries, at REC level for the programme area using harmonised desk parameters, and at episystem level for the priority episystems. The Evidence-to-Strategy Matrix. Extended elements (additional countries, systematic historical reconstruction beyond five years, sub-national estimates, detailed dashboard design, and adaptation of the vaccination-event model to other priority diseases) are proposed in the Inception Report. They proceed only once the core outputs are secured and must not delay the core deliverables. Data gaps are recorded and handed to the annual update mechanism, not closed through new field data collection. Exclusions The following fall outside this consultancy: implementation, deployment or modification of ARIS software; field data collection; vaccination campaigns; laboratory investigations; and the creation of a new information system or a separate vaccination strategy. Tasks and responsibilities Inception and scope confirmation Review the concept note, relevant Action documentation, the draft Vaccination Strategic Framework, and available ARIS extracts and programme datasets. Agree with PAPS: • the five consecutive years of the core period (the most recent five years with sufficiently comparable evidence; incomplete current-year observations are labelled separately and not compared directly with full-year totals) and the evidence cut-off date; • geographical coverage, the list of priority countries, the country-to-REC mapping and episystem definitions; • the forecast horizon and the priority review questions. Prepare a feasible 40-day work plan covering all six deliverables, data access, remote consultations and review windows within three calendar months. Establish a source hierarchy, a country-data request and validation protocol, an issues register and a prioritised core scope. Identify dependencies on ARIS access, national focal points and partner inputs, and escalate unresolved constraints promptly. Confirm relevant technical standards and definitions with FAO, WOAH and the Technical Reference Team. Submit the harmonised data-request template and country questio