DVD/261012 - Monitoring of excess mortality across Europe for timely assessment of the impact of communicable diseases and public health threats

The purpose of this procurement is to develop and operate a comprehensive system for timely monitoring of all cause mortality in Europe as an indicator of the population level impact of communicable diseases and other major public health threats. Excess all-cause mortality is a basic indicator for the assessment of the impact of influenza epidemics in the general population and an understanding of its epidemiology is key for effective public health planning and action. The most widely accepted and utilised methodology for estimating influenza mortality is to model this from time-series data of all-cause mortality. Vital statistics are accessible for all European countries, but might not be available in a timely fashion. The variation of mortality rates within a population over time can be ascribed to different factors as extreme weather conditions as well as waves of respiratory diseases as seen during the seasonal influenza epidemic. The monitoring of all-cause mortality provides valuable information on the general population and specific age-groups not targeted by disease-specific surveillance systems. Timely monitoring of excess mortality may also provide early warning signals for community-wide acute health effects.

The objective of this tender is to establish and maintain a network of European Union, European Economic Area and Stabilisation and Association Agreement (EU/EEA/SAA) countries national institutes / study sites engaged in mortality monitoring and ensure monitoring of excess all-cause mortality in the EU as a mean to assess the impact of the respiratory viruses, mainly: seasonal and pandemic influenza, pandemic-prone coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV-2, and respiratory syncytial virus. The network and the methodology will build on the work done by the ‘Excess mortality monitoring in Europe to assess impact of communicable diseases’ project during 2022-2026. The analyses and outputs will be done in collaboration with activities covered by other similar supranational/global initiatives, with the capacity to serve and support EU/EEA/SAA countries. In order to ensure sustainability of project outcomes, the project will develop data collection, analysis and outputs in close collaboration with ECDC to enable handover of activities to ECDC, should this be requested. The overall objectives of this call for tender are: 1. To develop and maintain a network of EU Member State national authorities or study sites engaged or planning to engage in excess mortality monitoring. 2. To develop and maintain continuous and timely data collection processes, analytical methods and timely outputs for estimating expected mortality and identifying excess all-cause mortality monitoring across age groups and geographic areas. 3. To assess and analyse the impact of influenza, SARS-CoV-2, RSV and other epidemic or pandemic respiratory virus circulation on all-cause excess mortality. 4. To build and strengthen capacity in EU Member States for implementing harmonised mortality monitoring methodologies for all-cause excess mortality. 5. To disseminate analytical outputs in scientific, professional and public fora, and to support ECDC in integrating excess mortality findings into respiratory virus surveillance outputs. 6. To ensure uninterrupted excess all-cause mortality monitoring during a pandemic, extreme environmental events or an unexpected major public health event. 7. To ensure close collaboration with ECDC to support methodological alignment, data integration, and preparedness for a potential future transfer of activities.