Ex Post Evaluation in South Africa (Adaptation Fund)

The Adaptation Fund, established by decisions from the
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change and its
Kyoto Protocol, was designed to finance concrete adaptation projects and
programmes in developing countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate
change. Following COP24 in December 2018, the Fund expanded its mandate to also
serve the Paris Agreement. As a result, it supports country-driven projects,
innovation, and global learning for effective adaptation, aiming to build both
national and local adaptive capacities. All activities are geared toward
reaching and engaging the most vulnerable groups, integrating gender
considerations for equal access and benefits, and enhancing synergies with
other climate finance sources. The Fund also fosters models that can be
replicated or scaled up, amplifying impact.
The AF-TERG (Adaptation Fund Technical Evaluation Reference
Group) was established in 2018 as an independent evaluation advisory group
accountable to the Fund Board and operates in accordance with the Fund’s
Evaluation Policy. Led by a chair, the AF-TERG fulfills an evaluative advisory
role through evaluation generation, utilization, and capacity-building
functions.
Ex post evaluations have been a key component of AF-TERG’s
mandate since the initial Strategy and Work Programme covering fiscal years
2021 to 2023. The motivation behind conducting ex post evaluations is rooted in
the Fund’s interest in understanding the long-term impact of its projects and
programmes—recognizing that adaptation outcomes often take time to fully
materialize and are best assessed years after project completion. These
evaluations focus on how sustained project outcomes contribute to enhanced
adaptive capacity, greater resilience, and reduced vulnerability among
individuals, livelihoods, and ecosystems.
The primary objective of ex post evaluations, in alignment
with the Fund’s Evaluation Policy, is to assess and learn from the longer-term
impact and sustainability of selected Fund-financed projects three to five
years after project closure. The evaluation process serves three main purposes:
1. Assessing changes in project outcomes—both positive and
negative—from the final evaluation to the ex post evaluation conducted three to
five years post-administrative closure.
2. Identifying conditions that either contributed to or
detracted from the sustained adaptation outcomes over time.

3. Analysing how these sustained outcomes are contributing
to local resilience.
To guide the evaluation process, three high-level strategic
questions are explored:
- Have the project outcomes been sustained since completion?
- Which factors have contributed to or detracted from
sustaining the project’s adaptation outcomes?
- How do sustained outcomes enhance local resilience?
It is important that these questions are addressed by
capturing differences in vulnerability and the distribution of benefits between
women and men, ensuring an inclusive and equitable approach.
The Adaptation Fund utilizes a co-creational approach for
the ex post evaluations of its projects and programmes. This collaborative
method leverages the expertise and perspectives of a diverse array of
stakeholders, strengthening evidence generation and fostering strong ownership
throughout the evaluation process.

For more information about this approach and
further details, please refer to
www.adaptation-fund.org.