New Procurement - Strategic Foresight Regarding the Examination System and Final Assessment

In 2025, the Directorate of Education (Udir) was tasked by the Ministry of Education (KD) with a comprehensive assignment to develop a more secure and improved examination system for upper secondary education. The goal of the assignment from KD is to develop a sustainable examination system that can withstand change, reduces risk, and lowers costs. Additionally, a desired effect for the target groups is that the assignment from KD will ensure good coherence with the curriculum in the subject(s) and that the quality principles in the framework for examinations are adhered to. The background for the assignment from KD includes the fact that the examination system has been characterized by a series of concurrent changes and events in the last 5-6 years that affect the complexity and risk of examinations, including: Introduction of new curricula, as well as the need to further develop the content and format of examinations Development and introduction of a new digital system The pandemic The introduction of AI in society Although examinations are the main focus of KD's assignment, it must also be considered in conjunction with the final assessment: The examination grade and the final assessment grade have the same purpose, i.e., an expression of the student's competence at the end of the education in the subject. The coherence between these two systems is important for the future final assessment system in subjects, including the role of examinations. This is further elaborated in 5.1. The examination assignment from KD spans several years and will consider all aspects of what is currently a very complex system, but also how examinations should be in the future. The Directorate of Education has therefore established an internal working group that will work on a strategic foresight process in relation to the assignment from KD. Strategic foresight involves combining analyses of long-term trends and possible futures with interdisciplinary collaboration and anchoring. Foresight methodology can serve as an important tool for navigating uncertainties and identifying opportunities. Udir will use the methodology in relation to the assignment in this procurement, given the complex nature of the examination system, as well as the uncertainties related to the future of examinations. The contractor shall assist Udir's internal working group in identifying drivers for the final assessment and in developing future scenarios by applying foresight methodology. See further description in points 1-3 under point 5.2 below. Mapping of drivers shall be carried out in collaboration with various stakeholder groups. Stakeholders include, for example, the various interest organizations associated with the education sector, as well as other stakeholders such as county municipalities, the County Governor, academic communities, suppliers of technical solutions, and others. The foresight work is limited to study-preparatory educational programs and common subjects in upper secondary education. The assignment shall be completed by September 1, 2027. The cost framework for the main assignment is NOK 1.2 million excluding VAT. The contracting authority also wishes to agree on an option concerning an extension and prolongation of the assignment by 1 year – see section 5.4. The option concerns examinations in vocational subjects. Full description of the le...