S30039 Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

The project is to identify key individuals in at least four suitable fields to interview in
relation to the techniques they use when handling both the analysis and presentation of
uncertainty. At least one interview shall be conducted with a professional or subject
matter expert from the Operational Research Society's Decision Analysis Special
Interest Group. The other interviews should cover different and diverse approaches to
give a wide range of ideas that could be of use within the field of transport planning.
Consideration should also be given to non-UK based operations as these may follow
different guidance or approaches. The examination of the results of these interviews should contrast the methods against
standard transport planning approaches and against each other. Recommendations
based upon this research should be made giving the relative merits and challenges for
each of the approaches and techniques. This work should cover both transport
modelling and transport-planning based analysis. Discussion of the relative merits of
alternative ways of presenting the results of the analysis for decision makers should be
included.
While delivering the service, the Consultant must provide the following deliverables:
- A technical note detailing the agreed choice of individuals and areas in which to
undertake the interviews
- A technical report on the results of the interviews and the conclusions reached
for handling uncertainty within both transport modelling and transport-planning
based analysis.. CPV: Development consultancy services (73220000). Procedure: Call-off from a framework agreement. Suitable for SMEs