Fiscal space analysis 4 non-communicable diseases & increased domestic resource

Agency: UNDP | Reference: UNDP-SLE-00324 | Type: Request for proposal RFP- 006/26 -consultancy for a firm to provide Fiscal space analysis for non-communicable diseases and increased domestic resource mobilisation through health taxationThe assignment will develop an analytical and quantitative modelling framework to assess the revenue generationpotential,healthgains,consumptioneffects,fiscalspaceimplications,andbroadereconomicand human development outcomes of increased excise taxation on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages in Sierra Leone. Throughout, the analysis will place explicit emphasis on non-communicable diseases (NCDs), ensuring that projected revenue, consumption, and fiscal space outcomes are directly linked to measurable reductions in the national NCD context.Theassignmentisdeliveredinfourinterconnectedoutputphases:·Conduct fiscalspaceanalysisandmodellingforincreasedhealthtaxationinSierraLeoneoverthe short to medium term.·Review the health financing, tax policy, legislative, and regulatory framework and develop recommendations for policy and legal reform.·Facilitate national stakeholder engagement and policy dialogue on the analysis, findings, and proposed reforms.·Delivercapacitybuildingandtechnicalsupportforhealthtaxmodelling,legislativereform,revenue forecasting, monitoring, and oversight mechanisms.·Draft anewexciselawinlinewiththepolicyrecommendations.1)ConductfiscalspaceanalysisandmodellingforincreasinghealthtaxationinSierraLeoneforthe next five years:·Reviewand validate the existing fiscal space analysis for health taxation in Sierra Leone, identifying updates required, and confirming current excise tax rates and structures with MoF andNRA.·Conduct a targeted desk review to fill gaps not addressed by the existing fiscal space analysis, focused on quantitative revenue and consumption modelling for alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages (including price elasticity estimates by product), and updated tobacco tax revenue projections reflecting changes introduced under the Finance Act 2024/2025.·Collect and analyse current fiscal and health data related to alcohol, sugar-sweetened beverages, and tobaccooUpdate,foralcohol,SSBs,andtobacco,thecomparativetaxstructure,rate,andrevenue-trend benchmarkingagainstWHO,IMF,ECOWAS,WAEMU,andWorldBankrecommendations. Reviewpriorstudiesandrelevantpolicies,legislationandregulatoryframework,relativetohealthtaxationinSierraLeone,benchmarkingagainstregionalandglobalbestpractices·Assess revenue and health impacts from the Finance Act 2024 and 2025 sin taxes and prior instruments engaging MoF and NRA as primary institutional counterparts.oAssessthecontributionofincreasedexcisetaxesondomesticrevenuemobilisationobjectivesoMap health tax revenue within the country’s revenue architecture and determine how the health taxes can help bridge the existing financing gaps·Developaquantitativefiscalmodeltoascertaintheincreasedrevenuegenerationandhealthbenefits achievable through increased taxation of alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages, including price elasticity estimates, revenue projections, and health outcome indicators.·Model multiple tax scenarios to determine revenue impact of increases at low, moderate and highleveloEstimateincrementalrevenuefromtheincreasedtaxundereachtaxscenario,oInSierraLeone’seconomiccontext, projectshort-tomedium termrevenueforupto5yearsoAssess the impact on fiscal space for health financing at all levels, based on the prevailing regulatory frameworks·Analysethehealthimpactandimplicationsforhumandevelopmentofincreasedhealthfinancing:oCollectandanalysetradeandconsumptiondatatoassessreductionsinalcoholconsumptions, tobaccos and SSBsoIdentifybehaviourofdriversandincentivesacrossdifferentpopulationgroupsoModel associated reductions on risk factors and estimate potential health outcomes with particular attention to reductions in NCD incidence, morbidity, and mortality attributable to tobacco, alcohol, and SSB consumptionoAssessdistributionalandequityimpacts,includingrelatedfiscal,social,andpolitical economy implications.§Provideactionablepolicyrecommendations,ensuringlinkagestothePFM provisions, with:oInstitutionalarrangementrequiredtostrengthenhealthfinancingoPhasedactionplanforimplementationoftheproposedactionplan2)ReviewofExciseTaxLawsandPolicyBriefDevelopment:·Reviewallexistingexcisetaxlaws,regulations,guidelines,andassociatedtoolsgoverningtobacco, alcohol, andsugar-sweetened beverages inSierra Leone, including the Finance Acts and the NRAAct.·Inengagementwiththenationalstakeholders,conductacomparativelegalanalysisagainstregional and international best practices, including WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) obligations.·Identifylegislativegaps,inconsistencies, andreformpriorities;prepareaLegislativeGapAnalysis and updated recommendations aligned to WHO guidelines and consistent to Sierra Leone PFM regulatory frameworks, development and financing objectives.·Produce a policy brief on the financing, development benefits, and costs of health taxes for government and parliamentary audiences,f CONTACT: • Email: vendors.sle@undp.org